NEW DELHI, Sept. 23
India could raise the share of electricity in its overall energy consumption from 19 per cent today to 32 per cent by 2035, with the electrification of transport playing a central role, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency.
The shift could also reduce India’s exposure to imported fuels. The IEA estimates that accelerated electrification could lower the country’s energy import costs by an amount equivalent to nearly 30 per cent of its 2025 import bill by 2035.
The projections are contained in the IEA’s latest special report on electrification, which examines how greater use of electricity in transport, buildings, industry and other parts of the economy could reshape energy demand over the next decade.
India is expected to be among the countries experiencing a particularly rapid transition. Southeast Asia’s electrification rate, by comparison, could increase from 25 per cent today to 37 per cent by 2035.
Transport is emerging as one of the strongest drivers of the shift. Sales of electric cars in India increased by more than 115 per cent between March and June 2026 compared with the same four-month period in 2025, the IEA said. Electric vehicles already accounted for more than 65 per cent of three-wheeler sales in India in 2025.
The economics of electric mobility are also changing. Across India and Southeast Asia, electric two-wheelers, three-wheelers and cars are now cheaper on average over their typical ownership periods than comparable vehicles powered by internal combustion engines, according to the report.
That could have implications beyond the automobile market. India imports much of the crude oil it consumes, leaving the economy exposed to international oil prices, supply disruptions and geopolitical shocks. Moving a larger share of transport towards domestically generated electricity could reduce some of that dependence.
The IEA estimates that fuel-importing economies worldwide could cut their combined energy import bills by more than $400 billion by 2035 compared with 2025 if they substantially accelerate electrification. India’s potential savings are among the more significant consequences identified in the report.
The question of energy dependence has gained greater urgency following the conflict in West Asia and disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA said concerns about shortages and higher prices have prompted several governments to pursue additional electrification measures.
India has responded in part by launching a programme to procure and deploy 500,000 induction cooktops, extending electrification beyond vehicles and into household energy consumption.
Replacing direct consumption of fossil fuels with electricity, however, shifts rather than eliminates the challenge of supplying energy. A more electrified economy requires significantly greater power generation as well as transmission, distribution and storage infrastructure capable of meeting changing patterns of demand.
For India, the timing of electricity consumption will be particularly important.
Solar photovoltaic capacity is expanding rapidly, increasing the amount of electricity available during daylight hours. Demand, however, is increasingly concentrated during evenings and at night, when solar generation falls.
The IEA said smart charging of electric vehicles could help narrow that mismatch. Time-of-use electricity tariffs could encourage drivers to charge vehicles when power is more readily available, while vehicle-to-grid technology could eventually allow EV batteries to supply electricity back to the grid when needed.
Such systems could improve the utilisation of electricity networks while strengthening the economic case for electric vehicles, according to the agency.
Cooling represents another major source of future electricity demand.
India and Southeast Asia currently account for less than 10 per cent of the world’s installed air-conditioning stock. Their combined share could rise to 20 per cent by 2035 as incomes increase and higher temperatures push more households towards mechanical cooling.
The IEA expects around half of households in emerging and developing economies to have access to cooling by 2035. Nearly 90 per cent of the new residential air-conditioning stock added globally over the period is expected to be in emerging-market and developing economies.
The trend could create a substantial additional load on electricity systems, particularly during periods of extreme heat when cooling demand peaks.
India is already experiencing rapid growth in electricity consumption. Between 2015 and 2025, electricity demand increased at an average annual rate of around 5 per cent in both India and Southeast Asia, according to the IEA.
Globally, electricity demand increased at an average annual rate of more than 3 per cent over the same period, driven largely by buildings and less energy-intensive industries. China alone accounted for more than 60 per cent of the worldwide increase over those 10 years.
India’s projected move from 19 per cent electrification to 32 per cent by 2035 would therefore take place while the country’s overall demand for electricity is also expanding.
That makes the composition of additional power generation important. Electrification can reduce direct consumption of imported oil and other fuels, but its broader energy and emissions impact will also depend on how the additional electricity is produced and how efficiently it is delivered and consumed.
The IEA projections do not mean India will automatically reach a 32 per cent electrification rate. The estimate is tied to the pace at which electric technologies are adopted and supporting infrastructure develops.
What is already visible is the direction of travel. Electric vehicles are taking a larger share of parts of India’s transport market, solar generation is expanding, cooling demand is rising and electricity is moving into uses previously dominated by direct fuel consumption.
If that transition accelerates as projected, the effect will extend beyond the power sector. It could alter India’s transport system, household energy use and, importantly for an economy dependent on imported fuels, the size of its external energy bill.
