NEW DELHI, Sept. 30
India recorded its lowest monsoon rainfall in more than a decade during the June-September season, with precipitation 12.6 per cent below the long-period average as El Niño weakened the rains across large parts of the country.
The rainfall deficit followed an exceptionally weak start to the southwest monsoon, with June receiving 36.5 per cent less rain than normal. Conditions improved in July and August, but the recovery was not enough to offset the early shortfall and prolonged dry spells in several regions.
According to the India Meteorological Department, rainfall between June 1 and September 13 was 15 per cent below normal.
Southern peninsular India recorded the largest regional deficit during that period, receiving 28 per cent less rainfall than normal. East and Northeast India followed with a shortfall of 25 per cent.
The weak monsoon has particular significance for agriculture because the June-September rains provide much of the water needed for India’s kharif, or summer-sown, crops and replenish reservoirs and groundwater used beyond the monsoon season.
The poor start to the rains affected planting during the early part of the season. By the end of June, the area under kharif cultivation was nearly 21 per cent lower than during the corresponding period a year earlier.
Rainfall improved substantially in July. On an all-India basis, the country received 1 per cent more rain than normal during the month, helping reduce some of the deficit accumulated in June.
August also brought an improvement, but rainfall remained unevenly distributed and extended dry periods continued in some areas.
Regional variations were substantial. Rainfall shortfalls ranged from zero to as much as 35 per cent in different parts of the country, illustrating the limits of the national average in describing conditions experienced by individual states and agricultural regions.
The four-month season ultimately ended with rainfall 12.6 per cent below the long-period average, making it India’s weakest monsoon in more than a decade.
El Niño contributed to the subdued rainfall.
The climate phenomenon involves unusually warm surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and can influence atmospheric circulation across large parts of the world. In India, El Niño years are often associated with weaker monsoon conditions, although the relationship is not uniform and does not determine rainfall outcomes on its own.
This year’s rainfall pattern demonstrated that variability within the monsoon can be almost as important as the final seasonal total.
The severe June deficit delayed the normal accumulation of rainfall at a crucial point for agricultural activity. Subsequent improvement reduced the overall shortfall, but could not fully compensate for the weak opening month or dry spells that persisted in some regions.
For farmers, the timing and geographical distribution of rain can matter as much as the cumulative national figure.
Kharif crops are generally planted with the arrival of the southwest monsoon, making prolonged delays or dry periods potentially disruptive to sowing schedules. Rainfall later in the season can improve soil moisture and reservoir levels but may not entirely reverse the effects of an earlier planting delay.
The nearly 21 per cent year-on-year shortfall in cultivated area at the end of June reflected those early pressures.
The improvement in July provided some relief, with rainfall moving slightly above the monthly normal nationally. The recovery also narrowed the cumulative deficit that had developed after June’s exceptionally poor performance.
Even so, the monsoon did not recover sufficiently to bring the four-month season close to the long-period average.
The national shortfall also masks sharply different experiences across the country.
Southern peninsular India and the eastern and northeastern regions experienced substantially larger deficits during the first three-and-a-half months of the season. Other areas fared better, resulting in considerable variation in rainfall availability.
Such differences can affect agricultural output, reservoir storage and groundwater recharge differently across states even when the national monsoon figure points to a single overall deficit.
India’s dependence on the southwest monsoon extends well beyond farming. Seasonal rainfall replenishes reservoirs used for drinking water, irrigation and hydropower generation and contributes to groundwater recharge across large parts of the country.
A weak monsoon can therefore have effects that extend into the months after the rainy season has formally ended.
The final consequences will depend not only on the national rainfall deficit but on where and when the rain fell, the performance of individual crops and the water available in reservoirs and other sources.
The 2026 monsoon nevertheless stands out for the scale of its overall shortfall. After beginning with rainfall more than a third below normal in June, a stronger July and improvement in August prevented an even larger deficit.
They could not erase it.
By the end of the four-month season, India had received 12.6 per cent less rain than its long-period average, leaving the country with its weakest southwest monsoon in more than a decade.
